n = 1,405 U.S. adults · Fielded October 6-9, 2026
44% of holiday shoppers expect to spend less this year, and 64% believe retailers raise prices before Black Friday to make discounts look bigger.
That’s according to the Drive Research 2026 holiday shopping survey of 1,405 U.S. adults. The result is a season shaped by tighter budgets and growing doubt about the deals.
We’ve tracked holiday shopping habits since 2020, and 2026 brought some of the biggest shifts we’ve seen. Here’s what stood out.
71% of holiday shoppers agree that Cyber Week deals aren’t nearly as good as they used to be. This is a particularly important finding for retailers relying on familiar percentage-off promotions to generate urgency.
64% of holiday shoppers agree that retailers raise prices beforehand so their Black Friday and Cyber Monday discounts are not really discounts. Shoppers still show up for promotions but they don’t fully trust the price tags anymore.
According to Drive Research’s 2026 holiday shopping survey, among shoppers skipping Cyber Week, 17% say it’s because there are no good deals, while another 10% believe these shopping events are a scam.
These findings add another layer to the growing skepticism around Black Friday and Cyber Monday promotions. Some consumers aren’t just questioning the value of advertised discounts. They’re choosing to skip the shopping events altogether.
“Shoppers still picture Black Friday as a 50% off discount. But, in reality, most categories peaked at 17% to 31% off during Cyber Week 2025, according to Adobe Analytics. When the discount shrinks and two-thirds of shoppers already suspect the starting price was padded, a 20%-off banner doesn’t feel like an event. It feels like a regular Tuesday.”
According to Drive Research’s 2026 holiday shopping survey, 44% of holiday shoppers expect to spend less than last year. This is higher than in 2025, 33% of consumers planned to cut their holiday spending.
Another 39% expect to spend about the same amount, while 17% anticipate spending more.
39% of consumers typically spend less than $400 on holiday gifts, up from 33% in 2025. At the same time, fewer consumers are reporting higher holiday spending budgets. Only 16% typically spend $1,000 or more, compared to 20% in 2025.
Here’s how typical holiday spending compares year over year:
Typical holiday spending | 2025 | 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
Less than $200 | 14% | 17% | +3 |
$200 to $399 | 19% | 22% | +3 |
$400 to $599 | 22% | 23% | +1 |
$600 to $799 | 14% | 13% | -1 |
$800 to $999 | 10% | 7% | -3 |
$1,000 or more | 20% | 16% | -4 |
Not planning to spend | 2% | 3% | +1 |
76% of holiday shoppers who plan to spend less point to rising living costs, up from 70% in 2025. Grocery prices are a growing pressure too, cited by 67% of budget cutters, up from 58% last year. High inflation rounds out the top three at 59%, up from 53%.
These findings suggest that consumers aren’t necessarily losing interest in holiday shopping. Many are simply working with tighter budgets as everyday expenses take priority over gifts.
55% of holiday shoppers plan to use a credit card for at least some holiday purchases, followed by debit cards (52%) and cash (46%). 19% plan to use Buy Now, Pay Later services like Affirm, Klarna or Afterpay.
Among shoppers planning to use a credit card, 47% expect to pay the bill in full when it’s due, while 33% expect to need anywhere from one to five months.
32% of holiday shoppers feel pressured to spend more on gifts than they can comfortably afford. For some, last year still hasn’t been paid off: 18% say they’re still feeling the financial effects of last year’s holiday spending.
86% of holiday shoppers plan to shop on at least one Cyber Week day this year, down slightly from 88% in 2025.
Online Black Friday is still the most popular day by far, but planned participation has slipped on every shopping day since 2024.
Cyber Monday and Small Business Saturday have each dropped 7 points in two years, while in-person Black Friday has barely moved.
69% of holiday shoppers plan to shop Black Friday deals online, compared with 71% in 2025. Only 28% plan to head into stores that day, roughly the same as last year’s 29%. For most people, Black Friday now happens on a screen.
61% of holiday shoppers plan to shop on Cyber Monday, down from 63% in 2025. With so many people already buying online on Black Friday, Cyber Monday works less like a separate event and more like the weekend’s last call.
26% of holiday shoppers plan to shop on Small Business Saturday, down from 29% in 2025. That 3.8-point decline is the largest of any shopping day this year.
Featured resources:
For a deeper look at the day itself, see our Black Friday statistics, Cyber Monday statistics, and Small Business Saturday statistics pages.
26% of consumers say Amazon Prime Day has the best deals of the year, and another 26% pick online Black Friday. In-person Black Friday (15%) and Cyber Monday (14%) trail well behind. Prime Day was the top deal event on its own in our 2025 survey; this year, online Black Friday shares the top spot.
14% of holiday shoppers don’t plan to shop on any Cyber Week day. Half of them (50%) say they dislike crowds, 25% say there’s nothing they want to buy, and 23% don’t want to spend the money.
“Most shoppers now experience Black Friday on their phone or laptop, not in a store, so the line between Black Friday and Cyber Monday keeps getting fuzzier. Retailers will get more out of one strong promotion that runs Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday than four separate ones. For shoppers who skip the weekend entirely, the answer isn’t louder doorbusters. It’s a low-key offer that doesn’t make them fight a crowd”
Over 9 in 10 online Black Friday and Cyber Monday shoppers expect to shop on Amazon this year. Walmart is a distant second at 58%, followed by Target at 42%.
Rank | Retailer | Online Shoppers |
|---|---|---|
1 | Amazon | 93% |
2 | Walmart | 58% |
3 | Target | 42% |
4 | Best Buy | 27% |
5 | Kohl’s | 22% |
71% of in-person Black Friday shoppers plan to shop at Walmart, the same as in 2025. Target follows at 55%, nearly unchanged from 56% last year, and about a third plan to visit a shopping mall (34%) or Kohl’s (33%).
39% of in-person Black Friday shoppers plan to visit Best Buy, compared with 27% of online Black Friday and Cyber Monday shoppers. Electronics are the second-most-planned purchase in stores, which suggests many shoppers still want to see big-ticket tech in person before they buy.
80% of in-person Black Friday shoppers plan to buy clothing and accessories, the same share as in 2025. Electronics follow at 70%, also unchanged.
Online shoppers have similar priorities, with 72% planning to buy clothing and accessories and 61% electronics.
54% of Small Business Saturday shoppers intend to buy clothing and accessories. Arts and crafts follow at 38%, books at 30%, and health and beauty products at 28%.
Product Category | In-Person | Online |
|---|---|---|
Clothing and accessories | 80% | 72% |
Electronics | 70% | 61% |
Toys | 40% | 37% |
Health and beauty | 38% | 34% |
Gift cards | 37% | 34% |
44% of in-person Black Friday shoppers plan to start before 5 a.m. on Friday, including 29% who will begin on Thanksgiving. The single busiest window is 5 to 10 a.m. Friday at 27%, down from 30% in 2025. Only 8% plan to wait until after 2 p.m.
21% of holiday shoppers usually finish their holiday shopping in the week leading up to Christmas. The most common finish time is earlier: 36% wrap up in early to mid-December.
At the extremes, 12% are done before Thanksgiving, while 3% are still shopping on Christmas Eve.
For retailers, that means the season doesn’t end with Cyber Monday. A sizable group of shoppers is still buying in the final days before the holiday, when guaranteed delivery dates, in-store pickup and gift cards matter most.
Nearly 3 in 4 shoppers say free shipping is important when choosing where to shop during Cyber Week, edging out promotions and sales at 72%. It’s clear shoppers want a good deal and don’t want shipping fees eating into it.
Factor in Choosing a Retailer During Cyber Week | % |
|---|---|
Free shipping | 73% |
Promotions or sales | 72% |
Product availability | 58% |
Guaranteed delivery before the holidays | 46% |
Return or exchange policies | 42% |
Fast shipping times | 42% |
46% of Cyber Week shoppers want guaranteed delivery before the holidays, compared with 42% who care about fast shipping. Shoppers don’t necessarily need their order tomorrow. They need to know it will arrive in time.
52% of online Cyber Week shoppers prefer to shop on a smartphone, compared with 37% who prefer a desktop or laptop. Phone shoppers are split between retailer apps (29%) and mobile browsers (23%).
Age makes a big difference: 51% of Baby Boomers still prefer a computer, compared with 29% of Millennials, who lean toward retailer apps instead (33% vs. 18% of Boomers).
55% of Cyber Week shoppers typically find deals on retailer websites, followed by promotional emails at 51% and social media ads at 42%. Each of these channels slipped from 2025, which suggests shoppers are spreading their deal hunting across more places rather than relying on any single one.
Where Shoppers Find Cyber Week Deals | 2025 | 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
Retailer websites | 61% | 55% | -6 |
Retailer promotional emails | 54% | 51% | -3 |
Retailer promotional social media ads | 47% | 42% | -5 |
Retailer apps and push notifications | 34% | 31% | -3 |
Word-of-mouth recommendations from family and friends | 33% | 28% | -5 |
In-store advertisements | 18% | 26% | +8 |
Online blogs and articles | 28% | 23% | -5 |
Retailer text message (SMS) promotions | – | 23% | New |
Retailer organic social media posts | 21% | 16% | -5 |
TV and radio | 19% | 16% | -3 |
Influencers | 18% | 13% | -5 |
AI tools such as ChatGPT and Gemini | 10% | 11% | +1 |
Newspapers and magazines | 14% | 10% | -4 |
26% of Cyber Week shoppers find deals through in-store advertisements, up from 18% in 2025. It’s the largest increase of any channel this year, while most digital channels fell. Signage, displays and circulars are earning more attention, likely from shoppers who are already in the store for other reasons.
11% of Cyber Week shoppers use AI tools like ChatGPT and Gemini to find deals, roughly the same as 10% in 2025. But only 4% say AI shopping assistance matters when choosing where to buy, down from 8% last year. For now, shoppers use AI to find deals, not to decide where to spend.
“Only 4% of shoppers say AI assistance affects where they buy, but 11% already use AI to find deals. That tells me AI is acting as a search tool, not a salesperson. Retailers shouldn’t pull back on their websites, emails, texts or in-store signage to chase it. They should make sure their offers are clear enough for AI to find and describe accurately.”
Survey Methodology
Drive Research surveyed 1,405 U.S. adult consumers about their 2026 holiday shopping plans. Fieldwork was conducted October 6 to 9, 2026. At a 95% confidence level, a sample of this size carries a margin of error of approximately ±3%.
For most shoppers, it’s a few hundred dollars, not a few thousand. 23% of consumers typically spend $400 to $599 on holiday shopping, the most common range in our survey. On the high end, 16% spend $1,000 or more, while 17% keep their holiday budget under $200.
For many households, yes. 44% of holiday shoppers expect to spend less than last year, and another 37% plan to hold steady. Rising living costs are the biggest reason: 76% of shoppers who are cutting back point to everyday expenses, and 67% name grocery prices specifically.
69% of holiday shoppers plan to shop online on Black Friday, but only 28% plan to head into stores. Black Friday is still the biggest day of the shopping weekend, even though online participation has dipped from 75% in 2024.
61% of holiday shoppers plan to shop on Cyber Monday this year. That’s still a majority, but it’s down from 68% in 2024, as more people do their online deal hunting on Black Friday instead.
Early to mid-December is the sweet spot, with 36% of holiday shoppers wrapping up then. Plenty of people cut it closer: 21% finish in the week before Christmas, and 3% are still shopping on Christmas Eve.
Many shoppers aren’t so sure. 64% of holiday shoppers believe retailers raise prices before Black Friday so the discounts aren’t genuine, and 71% say deals aren’t as good as they used to be. If you want to know whether a deal is real, check the item’s price history over the past month or two before you buy. 95% confidence level offers a 3% margin of error. If the survey were conducted with another random pool of respondents, the results would yield within +3% or -3% of the stated totals in the reports.
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